I’ve updated my formal paper on genetics, A New Model of Computational Genomics, which now includes more theory, and experimental data regarding imputation. The most important improvement is with regards to the discussions surrounding the predictive power of the software, which allows ethnicity to be predicted with about 80% accuracy. In contrast, simulating a haplogroup, by identifying all bases common to a population (which would therefore include all genes common to that population), and using that to predict, had no predictive power at all, producing an accuracy consistent with chance. The bare minimum interpretation is that haplogroups are not precise enough to predict ethnicity at the level of a nationality. It’s also possible that they simply lack predictive power, which would at least call contemporary genetics into question. This doesn’t mean that they’re insignificant, it could however imply that they lack the significance necessary to make accurate, and narrow predictions given a genome of unknown provenance.

Enjoy!

Charles